2019 Week 4 Games
For all games below, the home team is listed second and in CAPS. The lines used are from the Sugar House Casino Sportsbook. They have an easy to use website and standard hold percentages which makes them a good reference point to make our picks off of. They have lots of in-game betting options if that is your thing as well, and you live in the states of New Jersey or Pennsylvania.
Important Note 1: The picks below are based on the assumption that all the odds are -110. There are typically a range of odds and point spreads that can be found at various establishments across the country (and globe). We would only be making these bets at -110 or better odds for the given point spread (or if the point spread is more in our favor then we would of course be making that bet as well). Our plan is to check and update the point spreads for large line moves during the season and adjust the picks as necessary based off the latest lines.
Important Note 2: The bet sizes and percentages mentioned below for Sharp Bets and Razor Sharp Bets are calculated based on the Half Kelly approach described in the Bank Roll Management section of the website. The dollar values are for a $4435 bank roll after our slump continued in Week 3. Recommended bet sizes would change accordingly based on the overall bank roll size (i.e. bet size for a Sharp Bet with a $1000 bank roll would be $16. To fully enjoy and understand the experience below, please check out the pages under The Basics section of the site. This is where we explain the terminology, strategy, and methods employed below for making our picks and bets.
Eagles vs. PACKERS
Line: Packers -4.0
Pick: Eagles
Bet: No Bet
This game will be huge for the Eagles if they are going to take themselves seriously as a playoff contender this year. We also aren’t that excited for what we have seen from Rodgers so far this year. It does still feel like he is lacking a little something that he had several years ago. What Rodgers has lacked though the Packers defense has delivered. This will be our 4th week in a row to pick against the Packers but the first one to not have money on the line (We lost a Sharp Bet with the Bears in Week 1, the Vikings in Week 2, and the Broncos last week). Let’s see if the Eagles can at least make us correct 1 out of 4 times.
Titans vs. FALCONS
Line: Falcons -4.0
Pick: Titans
Bet: No Bet
The Titans took a loss to Gardner Minshew and are looking to recover this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are still a team that is tough to get a read on. We expect the Titans to keep it close so we’ll take the points in this matchup.
Patriots vs. BILLS
Line: Bills +7
Pick: Bills
Bet: No Bet
It’s a battle of AFC East titans. Each team with a 3-0 record coming in, only one with exit still unscathed. As much as we would love to see the Bills win this one, it seems highly unlikely they will be able to deliver. We will go ahead and choose them getting a touchdown as long as we are not putting money on it. We felt very fortunate to come away with a betting win against Brady and Belichik last week. Let’s not push our luck here.
Chiefs vs. LIONS
Line: Lions +6.5
Pick: Lions
Bet: No Bet
Well, count the Lions as one of the teams whose record has completely surprised us so far this year (if you go back to our Week 1 picks where we loved Arizona, it’s pretty clear how we felt about the Lions heading into the season). We think their 2-0-1 mark is a bit fraudulent and expect them to start the losing off this week. This game is a literal tossup though based on our model and the line above with the slightest edge going to Detroit. The pencil wielding Patricia will need a lot of help to slow down Mahomes and company. Maybe they will do just enough to lose by a TD with a missed extra point to cover this one.
Raiders vs COLTS
Line: Colts -7.0
Pick: Raiders
Bet: No Bet
While the Colts have been playing well, we are not sure a full touchdown spread is justified here. The Raiders have been showing some glimpses of being a half decent football team. We think they might be able to make a few things happen here and keep it close with Carr hooking up with Tyrell Williams at least once for a TD.
Chargers vs. DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins +15.0
Pick: Dolphins
Bet: $71 (1.6% of $4435 bankroll)
Redskins vs. GIANTS
Line: Giants -3.0
Pick: Redskins
Bet: $71 (1.6% of $4435 bankroll)
Browns vs. RAVENS
Line: Ravens -7.0
Pick: Browns
Bet: No Bet
Well the Browns are off to a troubling start while the Ravens look like world beaters. Things have probably looked bleaker than they probably are for Cleveland so far. As for Baltimore, they are probably not as good as they have seemed so far. Look for things to even out a little in this game was we see a pretty tightly contested duel. We will take the Browns and the points by a hair.
Panthers vs. TEXANS
Line: Texans -4.0
Pick: Texans
Bet: No Bet
Let’s not sleep on the performance of Kyle Allen last week as he will be starting in place of Cam Newton for the foreseeable future. There is a chance that the Panthers offense might actually improve with Allen under center as Cam was really struggling to hit his targets downfield in the first few weeks. The Texans are coming off a great road win last week and hopefully should be able to do enough to take this game by at least one full score. The O-line seems to improving slightly (or more likely the defense they played was not as strong) and giving Watson a bit more time to work.
Buccaneers vs. RAMS
Line: 49ers -9.0
Pick: Buccaneers
Bet: No Bet
Wow, what a crazy loss for the Buccs last week. It looked like they blew the game, only to get back into position to win, only to lose it again on the missed kick. We still believe that the Buccs are a bit better this and will show some growth as the season wears on. While the Rams on the other hand did come away with the win, they certainly didn’t blow us away with their play last week. If they continue to play a little slow and sloppy, look for the Buccs to hang around in this one and perhaps get that backdoor cover late in the game.
Seahawks vs. CARDINALS
Line: Cardinals +5.0
Pick: Cardinals
Bet: $71 (1.6% of $4435 bankroll)
Vikings vs. BEARS
Line: Bears -1.0
Pick: Bears
Bet: No Bet
Both teams played well last week and are coming off of nice wins against less than mediocre competition. It’s hard to trust either of these quarterbacks with your hard earned money so we’ll side with the team who we think has the better defense. That plus the home field advantage puts us on the Bears side for this one and we expect them to pull out the win.
Jaguars vs. BRONCOS
Line: Broncos -2.5
Pick: Broncos
Bet: No Bet
This will be a couple of tough defenses battling it out. Minshew has looked great so far but this will be his first big test against a stout D. Let’s grab the home team as they might win this one by a FG in Mile High Stadium.
Cowboys vs. SAINTS
Line: Saints +2.5
Pick: Saints
Bet: $71 (1.6% of $4435 bankroll)
Bengals vs. STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
Pick: Steelers
Bet: No Bet
Not exactly a marquee Monday Night Football matchup with the way these two teams are headed. The Bengals have still seemed to look better than we expected though even though they are still looking for that first win. The Steelers however have been a huge disappointment. Mason Rudolph has not enjoyed the instant success that Daniel Jones seems to be displaying over in NY. Rudolph has looked decent at times but terrible at others. This could be the week that he starts to get right and knocks the nerves off on his way to a confidence building win. We will take the Steelers to win this battle of winless teams.