Pick 1: Vikings for $85 (1.6% of $5305 bank roll)

Going off of Week 1, we loved what we saw from the Vikings in their offensive domination of the Falcons. Dalvin Cook was running like a wild animal all over the field. Forget Kirk Cousins - Demarcus Cousins could have been playing quarterback and won that game for the Vikings (even with his torn ACL).

On the other side, the Packers were who we thought they were (at least on the offensive side) in Week 1. If you had told us before the game the Bears would be able to hold them to 10 points, I would have expected us to win that Bears bet easily. It’s tough for us to tell though how much credit the Packers defense really deserves for that performance. The Bears game plan was awful, Trubisky was atrocious, and the one bright spot in Montgomery didn’t get nearly enough touches to make an impact.

We were sadly (and stupidly) a half point from having the Vikings in Week 1 so we are looking for redemption here. We will take them getting a field goal in Lambeau and hope they can continue making life miserable for Aaron Rodgers. He’s still terrifying to bet against, but we still don’t see that glimmer in his eye anymore - the fire seems lost. We will be rooting for the Vikes to snuff out the Pack and begin to make up for the years of beatings in Green Bay.

Pick 2: Dolphins for $637 (12% of $5305 bank roll)

Wow - what can we say about this game? It’s most likely the best team in the league going against the likely worst team in the league. The point spread certainly reflects that. This article on MSN along with the help of Pro-Football-Reference tells us that there have only been 4 home underdogs of 16.5 points or more in the past. This is truly an interesting and rare occurrence for a line to get this high and honestly it might have broken our model. I’m not sure it is built to handle or predict a point spread difference this high. Even saying that, we are sticking with our formula - trust the process! Let’s make Sam Hinkie proud of us. Let’s the do the good news - bad news thing with our Razor Sharp Bet. It was a fun exercise last time. Good news first:

• Home underdog. What few fans that might actually show up for this one are going to be rowdy!! Haha - even we don’t believe this but a home underdog is always a good thing in our book.

• Patriots have a history of struggling in Miami. For whatever reason and no matter the talent disparity, the Dolphins step up against the Pats in Miami. Maybe the humidity gets to Tom Brady. Maybe Belichik just feels bad for them and goes easy on them each year. But you would never guess that the Pats are actually 1-5 in Miami the past six years (and that’s straight up! not even against the spread).

• Belichik is planning to go easy on his former defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Last year the Lions somehow managed to beat the Pats with former D coordinator Matt Patricia (whose awful by the way). So maybe Belichik has a soft spot in his heart and doesn’t want to embarrass Flores too bad. We are reaching here but the Pats seem like they will have a cake walk into the playoffs no matter what happens this week. Why not throw Brian Flores a bone and leave him with some dignity?

• The Dolphins are no doubt salty about the pummeling they received last week. These guys are grown men and professional football players (we think) - how can they not have some fire and motivation after being disrespected so hard last week and this week with that Vegas line?! Step up Dolphins!!! Show us you care!!!

• None of those 16.5 point home underdogs mentioned above in the MSN article were able to complete the massive road cover. Extremely small sample but history is on our side for this somehow.

All right now for the bad news and there is plenty of it.

• Articles like this. We’ll just leave that there for you to soak up.

• An absolute destruction at the hands of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Just imagine what Tom Brady will do to that defense.

• The reports that the coaching staff’s preparation wasn’t up to par for week 1 and all of the offseason moves made to unload quality players carries a strong whiff (stench even) of tanking with this team. Let’s hope they don’t make it so blatantly obvious this week.

• A Patriots offense that shredded the Steelers in Week 1 to the tune of 33 points may be bringing Antonio Brown into the fold. Regardless of if he plays or not, the Pats offense could have a field day.

• We are just going to stop there - that’s enough. We are betting the Dolphins - doesn’t matter what we write.

Well, there you have it. Once again not exactly a ringing endorsement for our Razor Sharp Bet this week but there are some interesting points in the Good News section that we are choosing to focus on. The thing we like the most about this is that there are so many ways for an underdog of this magnitude to end up covering. Imagine the Patriots are up 35-10 late in the game - all it would take is for a Dolphins player to slip through for a meaningless TD to cover the spread. Or maybe the Dolphins find some self-respect and actually play them close like they have in the past in Miami. While it’s insanely scary to bet on the Dolphins squad we witnessed from last week, the NFL should just not have lines that get this high for a team on the road. We are siding with (limited) history here and hoping the Dolphins don’t embarrass and the entire city of Miami too badly.

Pick 3: Cardinals for $85 (1.6% of $5305 bank roll)

You didn’t think we’d let this week pass without betting on our boys again! What a comeback in Week 1 that made us go from zero to hero (well maybe not hero as our overall picks record was 1-3 haha but at least you can’t call us a zero). We were certainly sweating bullets and can’t believe we came out of that game with win and a profitable start to the year.

Looking at this line, it seems to be a bit of an overreaction on the strong Week 1 shown by the Ravens. Yes they looked great. Yes they looked dominant. Lamar Jackson nailed nearly all of his throws and deep balls. While we still think the Ravens will be good, we don’t think a 13 point line is justifiable for them against anyone just yet. That’s why we like the value of the Cardinals in this game. If Kyler Murray gets hot again like he did in the 4th quarter last week, we think there is even potential for the Cards to steal one here. That’s why we’re backing the Cards again this week and we’ll see if Kliff and Kyler (mostly Kyler) can put another win into our pocket in week 2!

Pick 4: Redskins for $85 (1.6% of $5305 bank roll)

The Redskins just can’t get any respect at home against America’s team. The Cowboys lit up the has-been Giants and Dak Prescott had a perfect passer rating, and now everyone thinks they are primed to make the Super Bowl. We think this is the perfect game for them to struggle though and come back down to earth. The ‘Skins played a tough game in Philly, and we think they will continue to play tough against these Cowboys. Look for the Redskins to pull an upset or lose on a late field goal making us winners and serving as a wake-up call for the boys in Dallas.

Pick 5: Jets for $85 (1.6% of $5305 bank roll)

We reached what should be our average number of games to bet on (five) with these last couple of line moves that opened up opportunities for us. This is basically driven by a disagreement on the amount of difference between Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemian. We don’t see that much of a dropoff here to justify a fully 3.5 point line move so we decided to jump in. Siemian was an average starting QB during his stint with the Broncos, and so far in his career Darnold hasn’t really proven to be that much better than average. The Browns could very well have an awakening game where everything goes their way and the stars align for an offensive explosion. I’m sure they are salty after last week’s embarrassment. We hope that occurrence is staved off for another week by the Jets and that Siemian slings it around just enough to cover that 6.5 point spread.