2019 Week 3 Games
For all games below, the home team is listed second and in CAPS. The lines used are from the Sugar House Casino Sportsbook. They have an easy to use website and standard hold percentages which makes them a good reference point to make our picks off of. They have lots of in-game betting options if that is your thing as well, and you live in the states of New Jersey or Pennsylvania.
Important Note 1: The picks below are based on the assumption that all the odds are -110. There are typically a range of odds and point spreads that can be found at various establishments across the country (and globe). We would only be making these bets at -110 or better odds for the given point spread (or if the point spread is more in our favor then we would of course be making that bet as well). Our plan is to check and update the point spreads for large line moves during the season and adjust the picks as necessary based off the latest lines.
Important Note 2: The bet sizes and percentages mentioned below for Sharp Bets and Razor Sharp Bets are calculated based on the Half Kelly approach described in the Bank Roll Management section of the website. The dollar values are for a $4491 bank roll which is where we currently sit after our week 2 debacle. Recommended bet sizes would change accordingly based on the overall bank roll size (i.e. bet size for a Sharp Bet with a $1000 bank roll would be $16. To fully enjoy and understand the experience below, please check out the pages under The Basics section of the site. This is where we explain the terminology, strategy, and methods employed below for making our picks and bets.
Titans vs. JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars +1.5
Pick: Jaguars
Bet: No Bet
How about Gardner Minshew almost pulling out a shocking victory in Houston. It seems like he actually has some decent skills despite his grizzled appearance. We still think this division will be a dead heat between the 4 teams - really hoping for 8-8 all around. The line indicates Vegas thinks the Titans are better and that creates our lean towards the Jaguars as we think these teams are fairly equal.
Bengals vs. BILLS
Line: Bills -6.0
Pick: Bengals
Bet: No Bet
After being crowned kings of NY (defeating the Jets & Giants in back to back weeks), the Bills look to take on the kings of Skyline Chili. Not sure if it’s coincidence but watching the Bengals get torched by the Niners last week had the same effect on our digestive system as a large bowl of Skyline. Was the tough from week 1 in Seattle an aberration? We will find out more this week as it still doesn’t feel right seeing the Bills favored by nearly a touchdown over anyone. We think the Bengals might be able to keep it close.
Dolphins vs. COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -21.5
Pick: Dolphins
Bet: $539 (12% of $4491 bankroll)
What’s that they say about insanity? It’s doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. Well things are definitely getting insane over here at Sharp & Square. Throwing more money at the Dolphins again this week after they let us down big time last week against the Pats. As is tradition, let’s run through some good news, bad news with this Razor Sharp Bet:
Broncos vs. PACKERS
Line: Packers -7.5
Pick: Broncos
Bet: $72 (1.6% of $4491 bankroll)
Falcons vs. COLTS
Line: Colts -1.0
Pick: Colts
Bet: No Bet
This is game is definitely a toss up. We had our line calculated at almost exactly Colts -1 as shown above. A decent effort by the Falcons was enough to take down the Eagles on Sunday night and put some doubt into whether or not the Colts can get this victory at home. We’ll lean just a touch towards the Colts as they seem like the more consistently good and well coached team.
Ravens vs. CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -6.5
Pick: Ravens
Bet: No Bet
Both of these teams have looked like absolute offensive juggernauts so far this season. Look for them to duke it out in a close matchup that may end up being decided by whoever has the ball last.
Raiders vs VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -9.5
Pick: Vikings
Bet: No Bet
The Raiders have been pretty frisky so far into this season. That’s enough to keep us from wanting to bet that the Vikings can cover by two scores. But the Vikes should get things back in line this week at home after nearly pulling off a comeback victory last week in Green Bay. Throw the ball out of bounds Kirk Cousins!! That’s always a better decision than lobbing one up for an INT to destroy your teams chance of getting a W. We’ll see if he’s learned any lessons this week.
Jets vs. PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -22.5
Pick: Jets
Bet: $539 (12% of $4491 bankroll)
Lions vs. EAGLES
Line: Eagles -6.5
Pick: Eagles
Bet: No Bet
We still have no idea how the Lions pulled out that game against the Chargers last week. The Eagles will definitely be looking for a quick turnaround after their loss. They should handle things fairly easily against this Lions team and cover the TD spread.
Panthers vs. CARDINALS
Line: Cardinals -2.5
Pick: Cardinals
Bet: No Bet
The Cardinals have been the only team to come through for us so far, but we can’t quite justify a bet on them this week. They should have a good chance of winning against a Panthers team without Cam Newton but backup Kyle Allen played decent when he got the chance to start last year. We’ll still give the edge to the Cards but make this the first week we don’t get to put money on them
Giants vs. BUCCANEERS
Line: Buccaneers -6.5
Pick: Buccaneers
Bet: No Bet
The Buccaneers are coming off a nice victory over the Panthers and should be well rested after playing on Thursday night last week. The Giants are coming into this game and finally kicking Eli to the curb to let Daniel Jones get his shot. It will be interesting to see how he does but we don’t think he will turning that ship around anytime soon. We’ll take the Buccs by a TD as Jones career will probably get off to a rocky start.
Texans vs. CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -3.0
Pick: Chargers
Bet: No Bet
The Texans were able to squeak out a victory by literally the smallest of margins last week (Fournette needed one more inch for the 2 point conversion). The Chargers are coming off a classic game where they just did everything possible to keep themselves from getting a victory. The Texans line has still not proven they can protect Deshaun Watson in any meaningful way so we are picking the Chargers for this one with no money on the line.
Steelers vs. 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6.5
Pick: Steelers
Bet: $72 (1.6% of $4491 bankroll)
Saints vs. SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -4.0
Pick: Seahawks
Bet: No Bet
It looks like Teddy B will be going for New Orleans. It’s a tough start having to go directly into Seattle in his first week as the starter. We actually think this one has good blowout potential for the Seahawks as they might just dismantle a rattled Saints team still dealing with the aftershock of the Brees’ injury. We’ll see if that is indeed the case.
Rams vs. BROWNS
Line: Browns +3.0
Pick: Rams
Bet: No Bet
After a decent week against the lowly Jets, the Browns find themselves facing a tough opponent in Week 3. The Rams should put the Browns back in their place and heading for 1-2 after this one. Aside from a few big plays by OBJ, the Browns really haven’t lived up to any of the hype from the offseason yet. The Rams on the other hand are just as advertised and maintain their status as a top team in the league so far this season.
Bears vs. REDSKINS
Line: Redskins +4.0
Pick: Bears
Bet: No Bet
This could be the week that the Bears offense finally gets rolling. They really need to find something to get some of the momentum back from last season. Luckily a trip to Washington is on the docket to face an 0-2 Redskins squad. The Redskins have still played fairly well and shouldn’t be overlooked here - that’s why we can’t really justify any wager on this one but still pick the Bears to pull it out.