Line: 8.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

With Flacco out of town and Lama Jackson at the helm, there is finally something for the die hard fans to be excited about again in Baltimore. While they have a ways to go to be true Super Bowl contenders this year, we do like them to finish just over .500 on the season. It’s too close to call for financial purposes though so no bets are being made here.

Line: 5.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

It’s been a long time since the Bengals haven’t been coached by Marvin Lewis. New head coach Zac Taylor will have his hands full trying to make something out of this team. The Browns are on the rise and it appears the Bengals are happy to take their spot as the whipping boy of this AFC North division. Look for this team to go 6-10 and barely take the over by a hair. There is no reason to bet this - it’s best to stay away from anything that feels a bit too Bengalsy.

Line: 11 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

There are times when the outputs of the model defy our better judgment. This is definitely one of those times. Betting the under on Patriots win totals has not been a winning proposition in the past. Thankfully the model has them leaning just under the 11 win mark and not significant enough to suggest that we should actually put money on this. Another no bet for us.

Line: 4.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

The Dolphins get the award for lowest win total line of the year! It seems like they are in full tank mode after the flurry of trade activity this past weekend. Despite all of that, we are dangerously close to recommending a bet on the Dolphins “over” here. We are being a bit hesitant this year with the season win totals bets because our number of data points is so much smaller than with individual games. That’s really the main thing holding us back. Maybe next year…that will be the theme for Dolphins fans before the season even starts and also captures our feelings about having some more data to make decisions off of.

Line: 7.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

This division continues to be terrible outside of New England. The Bills have a glimmer of promise with Josh Allen, but we think the cold nights in Buffalo will put out that spark before it gets a chance to mature. 7-9 looks likely but this one is still a pass for us.

Line: 7.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

It’s fitting that the Jets and Bills have the same under .500 win total line. Their match-ups against each other may well determine the outcome of these bets. Going up against what appears to be a tough AFC North and decent NFC East has our model putting both teams under 7.5. Still not strong enough to make our first season win total bet.

Line: 8.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

Last year our beloved Texans were able to win the division after an 0-3 start. This year’s first place schedule figures to be a bit of a drain on their win total, and last season they had the ball bouncing their way in a lot of close games. It seems like every year the win total and expectations are set for mediocrity at 8 or 8.5. This year is no different and we are hesitant to think they will repeat with our model seeing them right at the 8-8 mark.

Line: 6.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

As mentioned in the Week 1 bets, we do not think the dropoff from Luck to Brissett will be quite as harsh as everyone is expecting. The Colts still have a solid O-line and skilled position players to help shoulder the offensive load. The team is ripe with Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory potential and our model likes the over here. We were close but couldn’t quite pull the trigger on the bet here.

Line: 8 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The Jaguars defense will once again be top notch and the arrival of Nick Foles gives their fans a chance for a small modicum of excitement. He most certainly represents an upgrade from 2018 Bortles, but we still don’t expect huge things from this team. 9-7 seems about right which might still have them in the mix for this division. This has the potential to be the first time in history for a 4-way divisional tie with all teams going 8-8!

Line: 8 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

There really is nothing to be excited about with this team. Mariota seemed to take a step back last year and the shine of future potential has more than worn off at this point. We don’t really see things getting any better. 8-8 or 7-9 seems like a realistic final landing spot for this group. Not enough conviction here to make us reach for the wallet.

Line: 10 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

Patrick Mahomes was a magician last year, and we think he still has plenty more tricks to dazzle us with this season. Those calling for a regression are sensible to not expect the same kind of outstanding year from Mahomes. We think he will still maintain a high enough level of play to put the Chiefs in the driver’s seat once again in the AFC West. We have them going over 10 wins and probably the best shot to knock off the Patriots this year in the AFC (just as they were last year - line up onsides Dee Ford!!)

Line: 6.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The Broncos defense will still be top notch and maybe a reanimation of Flacco’s lifeless body is on its way. 6.5 wins seems a bit low for this group, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them outperform expectations this year.

Line: 9.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The Chargers put together a really solid season last year, and they should be just behind the Chiefs again this season. We are not worried much about the lack of Melvin Gordon as they have some decent backups to fill in. Look for Phillip Rivers to continue slinging the football like a shotput and lead this team to a 10-6 year and return to the playoffs.

Line: 6 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

What a mess this team is and things do not seem to be getting better. Jon Gruden hasn’t been an influential coach/leader in a long time, and we are not sure he is still cut out for the job. Our lean is towards the under here but maybe this team will galvanize around the destruction left by the Antonio Brown saga.

Line: 9 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The Vikings return with a decent team to challenge the Bears and Packers for the AFC North title. It feels like the Grape Crush drinking days of Aaron Rodgers are fading into the past as the Vikes are no longer a pushover. We could see them getting to 10-6 and give a slight edge to the over here.

Line: 9.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

We like the Bears on opening night and expect their success from last year to spill over into this season. The defense is still as strong as ever and Trubisky did just enough to carry the offense throughout the year. We look for a lot more of the same this year and really love the 9.5 win line. The Bears are in the driver’s seat to repeat as division winners so 11-5 is what where we think they will land. This is enough for us to put a small bet on the over and hope they repeat the success of last season.

Line: 9 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

We just don’t see the drive and the fire in Aaron Rodgers’ game anymore. Maybe new coach Matt LaFleur will reinvigorate him but we think this team will have problems in a tough AFC North division where the Packers might actually be the 3rd best team. The defense could be improved but we still think it will trail the strong D they will face from the Vikings and Bears. We shade towards the under with the Packers and like the Vikings & Bears much better in this division.

Line: 6.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

Last and certainly least in the AFC North is the Detroit Lions. From our viewpoint, they made no strides at significant improvements in the offseason and were a 6 win team last year. If you are not improving, then you are falling backwards and that’s where we expect the Lions to be this year. They look like a 5-11 or 6-10 team again to us playing in a tough division so we like the under enough to make a small bet here.

Line: 9 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

Ah the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry is running out of time to build them back into a Super Bowl champion. They return a fairly strong lineup on both sides of the ball but the team won’t be able to make the leap to the top tier as long as Jason Garrett is at the the helm. He is a mediocre coach and leader, and we don’t see things getting drastically better until he is gone. The main issue facing the Cowboys this year will be their strength of schedule. They play a strong NFC North and have games against the Pats and Rams based on their 1st place finish last year. That drives their win total for us just below/right at the 9 win mark so no bets here.

Line: 10 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

The safety net of Nick Foles is gone so the Eagles need Wentz to stay healthy for a full year if they want to exceed this 10 win total. We are in agreement with the win total lines and have the Eagles as the best team in this division. Not quite good enough to suggest an over bet here. We have this one leaning under somewhat due to the injury history with Wentz and the tough matchups with 3 solid NFC North opponents.

Line: 6 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

People are really counting out the Redskins this year. They are hardly even garnering a mention in many preseason projections and talks from what we have seen. Case Keenum is still a solid starting quarterback. You can count us as those in the camp who thought the Vikings made a mistake by giving Cousins that huge contract when they could have just kept Keenum for way less. The ‘Skins were a decent team last year before the brutal hit that took out Alex Smith. The 6 win line definitely seems too low to us as we can see them getting to 7 or 8 this year. That’s why we are making a small wager on the over for the Redskins this season.

Line: 5.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

Can Eli Manning really still be the quarterback? The Giants are afraid to just move on here and turn the page. The problem is that Daniel Jones is waiting on the next page. We think he should at least start to get his shot at some point this season. It will be interesting to see how long Eli holds on. There is not a lot of positive news coming out of the Giants camp and we expect them to be a slight under for their measly 5.5 win total.

Line: 8.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

The Falcons are such a strange team. It almost seems like they still can’t shake the mental and psychological destruction that occurred when they blew that Super Bowl to the Patriots. They obviously have the talent on offense to succeed, but Matt Ryan is making us think more and more that his best years may be behind him. We like the Falcons to struggle again this year and made a bet that they will be worse than their 8.5 win target.

Line: 6.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: $30 (0.6% of $5000 bankroll)

Tampa Bay seems like a team that just needs a bit of direction. With Captain Bruce Arians taking over to steer this pirate ship, we think the headwinds will be in the Buccs favor for the 2019 season. Winston still has the talent to be a good NFL QB but needs to improve on his decision making. We are hoping the addition of a good head coach will start driving him in the right direction. 6.5 wins seems awfully low for a decent Buccs squad that should show some improvements on offense and defense this year. We made the over another $30 Sharp Bet and will be rooting for the Buccaneers to win some games this year.

Line: 7.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The health of this team and franchise will continue to follow the health of Cam Newton. If he is at his best, this team will be a division contender. If his shoulder is not fully healed and Cam struggles with throwing the ball accurately then the Panthers could be looking at another down year. The 7.5 win total seems slightly low as the slightly above average Carolina defense still has the potential to deliver in games where the offense struggles. We think the Panthers can be a .500 team and lean towards the over here.

Line: 10.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

The Saints will be eager to get back at it after such a frustrating and disappointing end to their 2018 season. We don’t think they will be quite as good as they were last season. Brees had an excellent start to 2018 but slowed down some towards the end. That seems a little more indicative of the Brees we might see moving forward. The Saints are certainly in the driver’s seat to win their division but we could see their win total dropping to 10 this year.

Line: 10.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: No Bet

The Rams will once again be a team at the top of the league. The high win totals though are tough to bet on as one injury here or a couple bad bounces can turn a 12-4 team into 10-6 (still a solid season). No bets here and probably the slightest of leans toward the under based on the model.

Line: 8.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: No Bet

The Seahawks did have a lot of luck go their way last year. Their defense held up well through the departure of nearly all of the Legion of Boom (now with Earl Thomas gone - no one is left from that era). Russell Wilson will still do Russell Wilson things and the best home field advantage in the league will continue to drive their team to a good share of victories. The over looks tasty but not quite tasty enough for us to take a bite.

Line: 7.5 wins

Pick: Under

Bet: $180 (3.6% of $5000 bankroll)

We have a secret and it goes a little something like this - Jimmy G is not much better than Nick Mullens. Garroppolo had a decent 4 game stretch at the end of the 2016 season that made him a well paid man. Coming off an ACL injury is not easy, and it is showing as Garropplo’s preseason has been abysmal. Expecting the 49ers to make a big leap because of quarterback play this year is a big mistake. If they do achieve over 7.5 wins, it will most likely be due to improvements made on the defensive side of the ball. We love the under with these 49ers and expect to see Garropolo’s struggles continue into the regular season. This is one of our two Razor Sharp Bets on the season win totals as we see the 49ers maintaining their 6-10 status for the 2019 season.

Line: 5.5 wins

Pick: Over

Bet: $180 (3.6% of $5000 bankroll)

The Cardinals had some major changes in the offseason that hopefully will be a change in the tides for the organization. The Kliff and Kyler combo is something we are excited to see play out this year. Murray will have some games where he takes over and the offense is able to score some serious points. The presence of Fitzgerald will be a guiding force to keep these team battling throughout the year for each and every win. We know Kingsbury’s college record is way less than stellar but his offenses did put up big numbers each and every year. If Vance Joseph can get things warmed up on the defensive side of the ball, we think the Cards will be able to steal a few games this year from perceptively better opponents. That’s the main reason we like them to end up over 5.5 wins and made them our 2nd and final Razor Sharp Bet on the season win totals. We will learn a lot with their opening matchup at home against the Lions as we are counting on them to start off 1-0 against an underwhelming Lions squad.