2019 Week 1 Games
For all games below, the home team is listed second and in CAPS. The lines used are from the Sugar House Casino Sportsbook. They have an easy to use website and standard hold percentages which makes them a good reference point to make our picks off of. They have lots of in-game betting options if that is your thing as well, and you live in the states of New Jersey or Pennsylvania.
Important Note 1: The picks below are based on the assumption that all the odds are -110. There are typically a range of odds and point spreads that can be found at various establishments across the country (and globe). We would only be making these bets at -110 or better odds for the given point spread (or if the point spread is more in our favor then we would of course be making that bet as well). Our plan is to check and update the point spreads daily during the season and adjust the picks as necessary based off the latest lines.
Important Note 2: The bet sizes and percentages mentioned below for Sharp Bets and Razor Sharp Bets are calculated based on the Half Kelly approach described in the Bank Roll Management section of the website. The dollar values are for a $5000 bank roll which is what we decided to set as our own personal budget. Recommended bet sizes would change accordingly based on the overall bank roll size (i.e. bet size for a Sharp Bet with a $1000 bank roll would be $16. To fully enjoy and understand the experience below, please check out the pages under The Basics section of the site. This is where we explain the terminology, strategy, and methods employed below for making our picks and bets.
Packers vs. BEARS
Line: Bears -3.5
Pick: Bears
Bet: $80 (1.6% of $5000 bank roll)
Nothing like having some money riding on opening night! The home team does well in these scenarios and that’s where our money is heading. We are joining the SuperFans and backing the Bears!
Titans vs. BROWNS
Line: Browns -5.5
Pick: Titans
Bet: No Bet
The hype around this Browns team is tops in the league while the Titans were barely even mentioned this off-season. Our model leans a bit more towards the Titans in this game but not quite enough for us to be able to put some money on it. Should be fun to watch how Baker, Odell, and Chubb fare in this exciting opener.
Ravens vs. DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins +7.0
Pick: Dolphins
Bet: No Bet
This one is a coin flip for us. A lot of new faces on the Dolphins side of things will definitely make for some uncertainty there. For the Ravens, it’s Lamar Jackson’s team now - should be interesting to see how far he takes them this year.
Update: With the Dolphins trading away some key assets in the weeks leading up to the season, this game is swinging more quite a bit toward the Ravens (Dolphins started out getting 4 and now the line is up to 7). Our lean is still in the Dolphins direction here, but still not enough to wager on them.
Falcons vs. VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -3.5
Pick: Vikings
Bet: No Bet
The Falcons have been such a Trick or Treat team the last few years. They have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but it seems you never know if that team will show up from week to week. The Vikings should remain a strong opponent in 2019, and our model leans towards them at home in this Week 1 game.
Bills vs. JETS
Line: Jets -3.0
Pick: Jets
Bet: No Bet
A couple of 2nd year QB’s are going to battle it out in this one. Both teams had their struggles last year and are looking to improve in 2019. This game could give us an indication of which AFC East team to look out for this season.
Redskins vs. EAGLES
Line: Eagles -9.5
Pick: Redskins
Bet: No Bet
The Redskins still seem to be a mess and the Eagles are the cream of the crop. Will they be able to blow out the ‘Skins in Week 1? Our model is skeptical they will cover the 9 points. Either way - we are staying away from this one.
Rams vs PANTHERS
Line: Panthers +3.0
Pick: Rams
Bet: No Bet
Coming off their Super Bowl run, the Rams and Head Coach Sean McVay should be firing on all cylinders out of the gate this year. The Panthers underachieved last year and are looking to put that behind them. We have a slight edge going to the Rams here as they need to win by a FG to start off the season with a cover.
Chiefs vs. JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars +3.5
Pick: Jaguars
Bet: No Bet
When we first looked at this line, we’ll admit that the Chiefs looked good to our initial square inclinations. Turns out the model had other ideas and puts the Jags with a little bit of an advantage here. Nick Foles will be looking to get off to a good start with his new team and the Jags defense should remain as stout as ever. Who knows, maybe the Chiefs will have a tough time rolling through Jacksonville and starting the season off 1-0. Once again though, we will be sitting this one out.
Colts vs. CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -6.5
Pick: Chargers
Bet: No Bet
Prior to Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, the Chargers were a 3 point favorite. Now with Luck hanging it up, the line has moved all the way to -7.5 points and settled at 6.5 for now. Previously we were giving a decent edge to the Chargers with a healthy Luck and a 3 point spread (we were close to betting on them). We don’t think the line should have moved quite this far as Brissett is a decent backup. However, this isn’t enough to swing our pick in the Colts favor. Our pick stays with the Chargers, and we will see if they can keep the solid play from last season rolling into this year.
Bengals vs. SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -9.0
Pick: Seahawks
Bet: No Bet
The Seahawks are outstanding at home while the Bengals are looking to be more like the team from the 2nd half of last year than the one from their first few games. We expect the Seahawks to win easily here but laying 9 points makes it too close to call with any certainty.
Giants vs. COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -7.0
Pick: Cowboys
Bet: No Bet
The handling of the Beckham situation and the interesting draft have made the Giants one of the laughingstock organizations of the league. Look for the Cowboys to come out strong (Zeke or not) and take care of business against their division rival.
Lions vs. CARDINALS
Line: Cardinals +2.5
Pick: Cardinals
Bet: $600 (12% of $5000 bank roll)
You were probably beginning to wonder if we ever planned on betting on a game again. Well this game is opportunity knocking. Our model loves the Cardinals enough for us to make this the first Razor Sharp Bet. The Half Kelly approach has us laying a whopping 12% of our bank roll on this one so it alone will determine whether we have a winning first week or not. Let’s hope it comes through!!!
49ers vs. BUCCANEERS
Line: Buccaneers (Pick)
Pick: Buccaneers
Bet: $80 (1.6% of $5000 bank roll)
Wow! Two games to bet on in a row! So just to set expectations, our back testing proved that we should expect to get action on about 5 games per week on average throughout the season. This week we will end up with 4 games to bet on so a little below what we might expect. It all comes down to the match-ups and lines and what value our model sees out there! It found a clear favorite in the Buccs for this game so that’s why it’s one of our Sharp Bets for the week.
Steelers vs. PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -5.5
Pick: Steelers
Bet: $80 (1.6% of $5000 bank roll)
These teams love playing against each other and this should be a great first week match-up. The Super Bowl champs are 5.5 point favorites but we like the Steelers to keep it close!
Texans vs. SAINTS
Line: Saints -7.0
Pick: Texans
Bet: No Bet
Sharp & Square’s beloved Texans head to the Superdome in Week 1 for a potential rough welcome to kick start the season. The Saints are favored by an even touchdown but our model likes it to be a little closer than that (we swear there is no hometown bias). So the Texans get the edge in this one even though it’s still looking like they’ll open up the season with an L.
Broncos vs. RAIDERS
Line: Raiders (Pick)
Pick: Broncos
Bet: No Bet
The final game of the week really doesn’t look that appetizing. We’ll probably be asleep on the couch by the time the first quarter ends. It’s hard to like anything about the sideshow circus the Raiders have become. Even if Flacco’s first performance for Denver is flaccid, their defense will probably play well enough to get the win. We’re leaning Broncos for this one.